Wisconsin really has not proven anything to be a big road favorite against a division opponent fighting to get into the division lead. Northwestern is always a solid under dog, now 8-0 ATS in their last 8. Wisconsin looked back to normal last week as they pounded Illinois 49-20, but I would argue otherwise, and we saw Northwestern look awful in a 18-15 win over Rutgers.

Northwestern has faced the #30 ranked schedule compared to Wisconsin who has faced #77. They lose at home to BYU, and that looks much worse now. They were losing in the 4th quarter at Iowa and were lucky to come back and win by 11 in misleading fashion. Their big win over Nebraska also misleading. This Northwestern team played Michigan much tighter in a 20-17 loss at home, and they went on the road and beat Michigan State by 10 points. Their is something to be said about a team that plays a different brand of football than anyone else in the Big Ten. Northwestern throws the ball 60% of the time with their QB Clayton Thorson who is likely heading to the NFL next year. Thorson threw 3 TD passes last year against Wisconsin on the road, and this year he goes up against a Wisconsin secondary that is really banged up. The weather looks ideal with only 6mph winds and no rain. Thorson should have a big day and Northwestern's defense which is always a strength has played much better at home this year.

The big question for Northwestern is whether or not they can stop Wisconsin's running game that ranks 63rd in yards per carry, and I would say yes. Northwestern allowing 1.75 yards per carry less at home, and facing a one dimensional offense. Alex Hornibrook is just not a good QB. I really don't know why he gets as much credit as he does, but Northwestern's secondary should probably force a few turnovers in this game and if they do they'll have a shot to pull the upset.